For game devs and studios, there’s not many decisions more difficult than whether to continue developing a game or to shelve it. Creativity, time, and resources have been poured into bringing the game to life, but, in the end, it's the numbers that decide whether a game has the potential to succeed.
To navigate these tough choices and assess your game’s future success, it's important to understand the three core pillars that inform a game’s long-term viability: retention, conversion, and scale. 3 early key indicators of the strength of these pillars are the D1-D7 churn ratio, early game conversion signals, and CPI. Together, these metrics give you a view into whether your game is worth investing in, or if it’s time to let it go.
D1-D7 churn ratio predicts long-term success
When it comes to your game’s viability, retention is fundamental. If you’re not retaining players over time then your game has no chance of making it far enough to become profitable and recoup development and marketing costs.
A good test for evaluating your retention is to check if the churn ratio exceeds 45-50% between D1 and D7.
For example, if your D1 retention is 50%, you’d expect D7 retention to be around 25%. This level of drop-off is acceptable, but if you notice your D7 retention consistently dipping below that rate, it’s a sign of trouble. Note, if D1 retention is low then, regardless of the D1-D7 ratio, your game probably doesn’t have what it takes at the moment.
Retention issues don’t automatically mean you should kill the game. Often, they indicate fixable elements that are creating churn. For instance, areas for improvement in the FTUE, like confusing tutorials or frustrating difficulty, or content pacing (players are finishing your content too quickly and running out of reasons to stay in the game).
If you’ve examined and optimized these aspects and retention numbers are still failing to meet expectations, it may be time to say goodbye to the game. This is especially true in today’s market, where high CPI and long-term ROAS goals for hybrid games make retention critical.
Conversion signals show your game’s potential profitability
As important as it is, retention is only part of your game’s viability. Your game’s ability to convert players into payers is also hugely important. Conversion signals indicate if players are willing to invest their time and money into your game. They need to be present as early as D1.
The strongest early conversion signal is the IAP conversion rate. If players are already converting with IAPs in your early game, then your game has promise. This is also true for games that monetize with IAA, who can use the No Ads offer conversion rate as a signal.
Another significant conversion signal is the RV engagement rate. If players are watching RVs on D0 or D1 with an engagement rate of 10-15%, it’s a promising sign - it means players are invested enough to engage with ads to progress deeper into the game.
Other conversion signals to look out for are the churn rate on higher difficulty levels and booster usage rates. A tactic you can use to put your game to the test is to introduce a challenging level in the early group of levels to check player commitment. See if players churn after failing, or if they are willing to watch an RV or make a purchase to continue.
CPI demonstrates your market fit
The third pillar of game viability is scale. Even if your game has decent retention and conversion metrics, it needs to reach a wide audience and find high quality players to be sustainable in the long term.
CPI is the most critical factor in understanding your game’s scalability. If your CPI is too high, your game may be too niche or unappealing to a broad audience and too expensive to find the right audience.
But high CPI doesn’t always mean you have to kill the game, it can also be an indication of where your game’s marketing campaigns need optimization. Double check if your campaigns are reaching the intended audience and whether your creatives are effective before making the final call.
If you can scale your campaigns profitably, then you’re in a good place. Test your long-term marketability by multiplying your marketing spend by 2x, 3x, or 4x to see if your game can maintain profitability.
It’s not the end, just a new beginning
Knowing when to let go is as important as knowing when to commit. Killing a game doesn’t mean failure, it means you’re freeing up resources for your next great idea. If you’ve iterated on your game and the results are still coming up short, don’t waste time trying to force it. Learn from the experience, apply those lessons to your next project, and move forward.
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